Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 15.5% on 4 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 29 daily closes on record from 4 Mar 2026 to 1 Apr 2026, the highest close was 39% on 11 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 24 points up, to 35.4% on 21 Mar 2026. $1.05K traded over the market's life.
18 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 1, 7:45 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 29 points, 4 Mar 2026 – 1 Apr 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Mar 2026 | 15.5% |
| 1 Apr 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.92K |
| TENETENET | Yes | 500 |
| human.bean | Yes | 163.95 |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 94.8 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of March 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid recorded price in March as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Resolution source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-sp-500-spx-close-at-in-march
| Ivory Maven ADAF | Yes | 65 |
| pntn-ara | Yes | 46.78 |
| Thorny-Senate | Yes | 40.37 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 30 |
| Neon Pulse EAAC | Yes | 18 |
| ra5tadark | Yes | 11.9 |
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