Analytics
Resolved No on 11 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 13.5% on 29 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 29 Oct 2024 to 11 Nov 2024, the highest close was 30.5% on 6 Nov 2024 and the lowest 0.5% on 9 Nov 2024. Its largest one-day move was 28 points down, to 2% on 7 Nov 2024. $1.21K traded over the market's life.
2 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 11, 2:13 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 29 Oct 2024 – 11 Nov 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Oct 2024 | 13.5% |
| 11 Nov 2024 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 826.8 |
| tukinguyen | No | 0.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final election forecast by Silver Bulletin correctly predicts the winning candidate in precisely 45 U.S. states in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The forecast’s prediction for each state will be based on the candidate with the highest probability of winning in that state. If the Silver Bulletin's final election forecast has two candidates tied as most likely for a state (there is no favorite), that state will not count as a as a state called correctly. This market may only resolve once all of Polymarket's presidential election state markets have been resolved. The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model, specifically the probability of winning each U.S. state.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-states-will-nate-silver-call-correctly
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
