Analytics
Yes is at 48%, up 6.5 points from 41.5% when the market opened on 23 Jul 2026.
Across the 95 daily closes on record from 23 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 51% on 28 Sep 2026 and the lowest 23% on 3 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 48%; a month before, 48%. Its largest one-day move was 18 points up, to 46% on 26 Aug 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Seltzers with 5mg THC legal on…?”.
$487.33 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $129.46, with a 56.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is anothaonebitesthedust with 40 shares; the largest No position is xtxpleasecallme with 37.
Trading closes on 14 Mar 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:41 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 95 points, 23 Jul 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 10%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Jul 2026 | 41.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 48.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| anothaonebitesthedust | Yes | 40 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 37 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | No | 23 |
On November 12, 2025, the United States enacted a law that includes a provision, referred to herein as Section 781, defining hemp to exclude products containing a tetrahydrocannabinols (“THC”) concentration (including tetrahydrocannabinolic acid) of over 0.3%, or finished consumer products containing over 0.4mg of THC. This law would have the effect of creating federal prohibitions on the sale of such products and is scheduled to go into effect on November 12, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, a hemp-derived beverage containing 5mg or more of total THC per container qualifies as lawful hemp under federal law (and is therefore not a schedule 1 controlled substance). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying means by which this market may resolve to Yes include, but are not limited to: the repeal of Section 781, the delay of the effective date of Section 781 past the specified date, the enactment of a law that overrides Section 781, or the nationwide enjoinment of Section 781 by a federal court. State laws or authorizations, federal enforcement discretion (such as non-prosecution policies or guidance), court orders limited to specific parties, products, states, or districts, bills that have not been enacted, and FDA food-additive or premarket status will not alone be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to “Yes.” The primary resolution source is Congress.gov and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/seltzers-with-5mg-thc-legal-on-20260721232319562
| SmartBoyBilly | No | 20.1 |
| Slackjaw | Yes | 20 |
| signalso | Yes | 20 |
| chessplayer | Yes | 0.1 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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