Analytics
Vultax does not execute orders. These controls open the official Polymarket market or route back into the Vultax predictions terminal.
“Will Scotiabank fail by end of 2026?” is a economy prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Which banks will fail by end of 2026?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
Trading is open until May 1, 2027 UTC. As of Oct 4, 5:18 AM UTC, Yes trades at 2.4¢, a 2.4% implied chance, $3.98K traded in the last 24 hours, $1.36K resting in the order book, a 1.3% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 171 daily price points from Apr 9, 2026 UTC to Oct 4, 2026 UTC (Yes between 1.8% and 49.0%); 13 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 99.4% of the loaded shares; 48 recent public fills from 22 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 171 points · 9 Apr 2026 – 4 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Apr 2026 | 46.0% |
| 4 Oct 2026 | 2.4% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Musk5 | No | 1.22K |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yes | 914.55 |
| Tiny-Club | Yes |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework, within the listed date range: - The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions. - The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank. - A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention. - The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank. - The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer. If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open until April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-banks-will-fail-by-end-of-2026
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 100 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 88.22 |
| roadstar | No | 81.21 |
| niglette | Yes | 59.91 |
| Gorea | Yes | 42.71 |
| Mojito9 | Yes | 30 |
| AJSV | Yes | 28.58 |
| Slackjaw | Yes | 20 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
