Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 44% on 27 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 35 daily closes on record from 27 Jun 2026 to 1 Aug 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 44% on 27 Jun 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 28 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 42 points down, to 2.1% on 28 Jun 2026. $4.98K traded over the market's life.
32 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 21, 6:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 35 points, 27 Jun 2026 – 1 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Jun 2026 | 44.0% |
| 1 Aug 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Cosmic Kestrel 91AB | Yes | 1K |
| gjj7tbmkk763ggg | Yes | 252.13 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 149.99 |
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/satoshis-identity-be-proven-by
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| TENETENET | Yes | 100 |
| wowword | No | 29.03 |
| familto | No | 28.03 |
| firehold | No | 25.1 |
| akunai | Yes | 25.05 |
| menthe2 | Yes | 25 |
| yaoyuanroad | No | 23.02 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
