Will Santa deliver between 8,000,000,000 and 8,100,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?

Resolved

No, settled Dec 25, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$384.3K

Resolved

Settled

Dec 25, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 25 Dec 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 6.5% on 13 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 13 Dec 2025 to 25 Dec 2025, the highest close was 6.6% on 14 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.2% on 18 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 5.5 points down, to 1.1% on 15 Dec 2025. $384.34K traded over the market's life.

105 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 4, 10:44 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 13 Dec 2025 – 25 Dec 2025, chart shows 0%–10%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
13 Dec 2025	6.5%
25 Dec 2025	0.3%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	247.95K
Intalat	Yes	36.33K
mysticrealm	Yes	24.99K
borja13	Yes	19.09K

10 of 105 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to the total number of gifts delivered by Santa for Christmas 2025 as reported by the NORAD Santa Tracker website. If the reported total number of gifts delivered falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve as soon as data is finalized for 2025. If data is not available by December 31, 2025 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the NORAD Tracks Santa website, https://www.noradsanta.org/en/.