Will Samiuela Vea win the Tongatapu 2 by-election?

worldResolved

No, settled Oct 8, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$405

Resolved

Settled

Oct 8, 2026 UTC

Topic roomWorld elections

Where it stands

Resolved No on 8 Oct 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 92.2%. Yes opened at 25% on 10 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 29 daily closes on record from 10 Sep 2026 to 8 Oct 2026, the highest close was 25% on 10 Sep 2026 and the lowest 4.2% on 29 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 9.5% on 13 Sep 2026. $404.81 traded over the market's life.

13 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 9, 8:23 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 29 points, 10 Sep 2026 – 8 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–30%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	346.2
e46m3	Yes	83.88
spaceloaf	Yes	48.99
GuyFromTinder	Yes	20.15

10 of 13 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).