Analytics
Resolved No on 9 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 29.5%. Yes opened at 64% on 7 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 7 Dec 2025 to 9 Dec 2025, the highest close was 71.5% on 8 Dec 2025 and the lowest 64% on 7 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 7.5 points up, to 71.5% on 8 Dec 2025. $37.68K traded over the market's life.
71 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 10, 4:34 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 7 Dec 2025 – 9 Dec 2025, chart shows 60%–75%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Dec 2025 | 64.0% |
| 9 Dec 2025 | 70.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Vengeful-Happening | Yes | 2.52K |
| Large-Idea | Yes | 1.61K |
| Mortified-Wiseguy | Yes | 875.22 |
| kthehandyman | Yes | 378.03 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Sam Altman is scheduled to appear on the December 8 broadcast of The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon: https://www.theverge.com/news/837942/sam-altman-is-going-on-the-tonight-show-next-week This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman says the listed term at any point during this episode. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If clips of old episodes or prerecorded videos are aired where Sam Altman is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution. Commercials which are not part of the show itself will not qualify toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will not count towards this market's resolution. Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). If this appearance is definitively cancelled by Sam Altman or NBC, or otherwise is not released by December 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be audio/video of the appearance.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-sam-altman-say-on-the-tonight-show-on-december-8
| yesbro | Yes | 280 |
| JD7777 | Yes | 274.26 |
| Solid-Airport | Yes | 268.29 |
| donbalon | Yes | 188.11 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 150 |
| Zukerberg | Yes | 141.06 |
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