Analytics
Trading ended on 28 Oct 2026 with Yes at 4.4%; Polymarket has not settled it yet.
Across the 47 daily closes on record from 4 Sep 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (9 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 47.5% on 4 Sep 2026 and the lowest 2.5% on 14 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.7%; a month before, 13%. Its largest one-day move was 33 points down, to 14.5% on 5 Sep 2026.
Ryan Posselt ranks fifth of the 7 outcomes in “Hobart Lord Mayor Election Winner”. John Kelly leads at 41.6%; Harvey Lennon is at 33.1%.
$2.81K has traded since listing.
The largest Yes position is paddaa with 290 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 801. Ten wallets hold 92.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Polymarket record as of Oct 29, 3:38 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 47 points, 4 Sep 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Sep 2026 | 47.5% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 4.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 800.77 |
| paddaa | Yes | 290.13 |
| SickandTired | No | 237.71 |
Local government elections are scheduled to be held across Tasmania on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Lord Mayor of the City of Hobart as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/hobart-lord-mayor-election-winner
| DontCryMontreal |
| Yes |
| 200 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 102 |
| oneoftheppl | Yes | 80 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 73.3 |
| SmartBoyBilly | Yes | 50.02 |
| 1x6891589732cf8beaaf424b117d5c5c20919f6bb9 | Yes | 50 |
| needleladder | Yes | 35.91 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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