Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 6.5% on 29 May 2025. Before it settled, across the 219 daily closes on record from 29 May 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 9% on 10 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jan 2026. $1.45M traded over the market's life.
331 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 17, 10:39 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 219 points, 29 May 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 May 2025 | 6.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| carwash8540 | Yes | 35.27K |
| traadee | Yes | 33.52K |
| hedgeyy | Yes | 31.22K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-in-2025
| nothinggood | Yes | 14.93K |
| thomas111 | Yes | 12.69K |
| dioskalacs | Yes | 9.88K |
| prapor335 | Yes | 8K |
| Lucduarte | Yes | 6.71K |
| Vain-Misplacement | Yes | 5.37K |
| theherq | Yes | 4.67K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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