Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 29.5% on 5 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 25 daily closes on record from 5 Feb 2026 to 1 Mar 2026, the highest close was 29.5% on 5 Feb 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 1 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 6.5 points down, to 19% on 7 Feb 2026. $16.41K traded over the market's life.
20 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 21, 6:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 25 points, 5 Feb 2026 – 1 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Feb 2026 | 29.5% |
| 1 Mar 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494901° N, 37.365342° E in Toretske, Donetsk Oblast, by February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To1.png Intersection Location in Toretske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To2.png Toretske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/fs9k1LmA4CbPP4tLA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
| Yes |
| 75 |
| AzuthaX | Yes | 62.5 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 60 |
| abc1231112441 | Yes | 34 |
| PX5300 | Yes | 30 |
| Zende | Yes | 25 |
| Silent-Camera | Yes | 17.86 |
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-toretske-by
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
