Analytics
Yes is at 6.8%, down 9.7 points from 16.5% when the market opened on 23 Sep 2026.
Across the 35 daily closes on record from 23 Sep 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 17% on 26 Sep 2026 and the lowest 4% on 27 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 10.5%; a month before, 8%. Its largest one-day move was 8.5 points down, to 8.5% on 27 Sep 2026.
$29.98 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $3.55K since listing. The order book holds $2.58K, with a 2.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 55 trades, $91.6 bought Yes and $1K bought No.
The largest Yes position is VikingFjord with 478 shares; the largest No position is czvxks with 512.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 12:26 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 35 points, 23 Sep 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Sep 2026 | 16.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 7.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| czvxks | No | 512.09 |
| VikingFjord | Yes | 478.17 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 249.94 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 49.048958° N, 37.829063° E in Stavky, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stavky1.png Intersection Location in Stavky: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stavky2.png Stavky Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stavky3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/As9xRqw7yvEiQGSh8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
| Haradwaith |
| No |
| 120.02 |
| shred7777 | No | 100 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 85.01 |
| ProxyOne | No | 60 |
| baklavam | Yes | 40 |
| SmartBoyBilly | No | 30.02 |
| John.Gault | No | 27.97 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-stavky-by-july-31
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