
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 20% on 23 Jul 2025. Before it settled, the high was 35.5% on 13 Aug 2025 and the low 0.1% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 10 points up, to 24.5% on 9 Aug 2025. $442.4K traded over the market's life.
77 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 12:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 164 points, 23 Jul 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Jul 2025 | 20.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| youngthugfan67 | Yes | 8.91K |
| Productive-Carpet | Yes | 2.78K |
| Weak-Bakeware | Yes | 1.17K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Slovainsk Slov'yans'k-Vitka train station located on Tsentralna Vulytsia by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/slovyansk+train+station+zoom.png Train station Location in Slovyansk: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/slovyansk+train+station.jpeg Slovyansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/slovyansk.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/FnDJ8Xur2CzKvGC76?g_st=isi The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-slovainsk-in-2025
| Yes |
| 1.04K |
| lissartter | Yes | 419.82 |
| Earnest-Somersault | Yes | 340.51 |
| MuchAdo2BRN2B | Yes | 300.96 |
| Kamaz | Yes | 260 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 253.95 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 225.98 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page