Analytics
Resolved Yes on 24 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 32%. Yes opened at 27% on 28 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 58 daily closes on record from 28 Aug 2025 to 24 Oct 2025, the highest close was 45.5% on 2 Sep 2025 and the lowest 8% on 12 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 12 points up, to 37% on 23 Oct 2025. $494.47K traded over the market's life.
139 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 26, 12:28 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 58 points, 28 Aug 2025 – 24 Oct 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Aug 2025 | 27.0% |
| 24 Oct 2025 | 32.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| HardlandSus | No | 8.04K |
| DoubleKellogs | No | 5.7K |
| splitpersonality | No | 3.23K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Pokrovsk train station (48.284816377539386, 37.180016843748454) by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The train station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by October 31, 2025, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. Once Russia captures the train station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/pokrovsk+train+station.jpeg Pokrovsk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Pokrovosk+Location.png Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/7cfvanMFiovHG2mp8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
| No |
| 1.24K |
| lilya45 | No | 1K |
| bartsimpson22 | No | 875.63 |
| MikeHez | No | 750 |
| egorll | No | 678.18 |
| nstr | No | 650 |
| Ljqiii | No | 350 |
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