Will Russia capture Pokrovka by April 30?

politicsResolved

No, settled May 1, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$12.0K

Resolved

Settled

May 1, 2026 UTC

Topic roomRussia–Ukraine

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 May 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 41% on 27 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 27 Mar 2026 to 1 May 2026 (22 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 41% on 27 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 10% on 23 Apr 2026. $12.01K traded over the market's life.

27 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of May 2, 4:24 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 27 Mar 2026 – 1 May 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
27 Mar 2026	41.0%
1 May 2026	0.3%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Oklmntrader	Yes	360.27
negator512	Yes	136.49
Boeing687	Yes	40
tituslouis83	Yes	30.66

10 of 27 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.802224° N, 35.379423° E in Pokrovka, Sumy Oblast, by April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK1.png Intersection Location in Pokrovka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK2.png Pokrovka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/5bGDdDbzTjnHjY418 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.