
Resolved No on 1 Nov 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 23% on 3 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 60 daily closes on record from 3 Sep 2025 to 1 Nov 2025, the highest close was 32.5% on 8 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.5% on 1 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 4.5% on 27 Oct 2025. $231.51K traded over the market's life.
55 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 2, 8:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 60 points, 3 Sep 2025 – 1 Nov 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Sep 2025 | 23.0% |
| 1 Nov 2025 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Gloomy-Stag | Yes | 3.7K |
| Rost1239 | Yes | 2.3K |
| Mighty1lf | Yes | 1.41K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection between Vatutina Vulytsya and Puhachova Vulytsya located in Myrnohrad by October 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. The intersection station will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/myrnohrad+intersection+zoom.png Intersection Location in Myrnohard: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/myrnohrad+intersection.jpeg Myrnohrad Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/myrnohrad.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/qCLFQNiDKN2ABe5Q9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
| Yes |
| 1.37K |
| Quantoph | Yes | 864.99 |
| Mitarex | Yes | 853.4 |
| tsihkodiives | Yes | 791.25 |
| CharlesDrake28 | Yes | 353.77 |
| lissartter | Yes | 260.51 |
| WosJ | Yes | 253.33 |
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/arch-will-russia-capture-myrnohard-by-september-30
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page