Analytics
Paper trading
Resolved No on 1 May 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 10.5% on 12 Feb 2025. Before it settled, the high was 13.5% on 14 Feb 2025 and the low 0.2% on 1 May 2025. Its largest one-day move was 5 points up, to 11% on 15 Mar 2025. $65.38K traded over the market's life.
11 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 24, 9:52 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 79 points, 12 Feb 2025 – 1 May 2025, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Feb 2025 | 10.5% |
| 1 May 2025 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Protos | Yes | 4.75K |
| ArthurGreen | Yes | 117.21 |
| Bygaga | Yes | 100 |
| GreedyCat | No | 0.03 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kup'yans'k-Pivdennyi railroad station located on Pryvokzalna vulytsia by April 30, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+train+station.jpeg Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/9Pt8PPbQvWLerHLr6 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-kupiansk-by
| framefame | No | 0.02 |
| amused85 | No | 0.02 |
| Karekken | No | 0.02 |
| daroghi | No | 0.01 |
| split | No | 0.01 |
| Dental-Package | Yes | 0.01 |
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