Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 56.5% on 20 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 43 daily closes on record from 20 Jun 2026 to 1 Aug 2026, the highest close was 72.5% on 22 Jun 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 1 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 44% on 13 Jul 2026. $290.5K traded over the market's life.
199 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:09 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 43 points, 20 Jun 2026 – 1 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Jun 2026 | 56.5% |
| 1 Aug 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| elPolloLoco | Yes | 5.5K |
| fractal.cucumber | Yes | 3K |
| Slim-Yolk | Yes | 2.46K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by July 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka3.jpg Train Station Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka2.jpg Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka1.jpg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/hZ6ch5jVRvkNFY317 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
| Yes |
| 2.08K |
| troim | Yes | 2K |
| Strarper | Yes | 1.55K |
| iguessiknow | Yes | 1.36K |
| 7Rus7 | Yes | 1.18K |
| Sigony | Yes | 1.08K |
| Donkolo | Yes | 999.98 |
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by
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