Analytics
Yes is at 5.3%, down 11 points from 16.5% when the market opened on 26 Jun 2026.
Across the 114 daily closes on record from 26 Jun 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (11 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 33% on 12 Jul 2026 and the lowest 2.9% on 26 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 5.3%; a month before, 5.1%. Its largest one-day move was 8.5 points up, to 33% on 12 Jul 2026.
$27.39K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $384.45, with a 0.5% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 203 trades, $54.06 bought Yes and $12.21K bought No.
The largest Yes position is BeQuiet94 with 100 shares; the largest No position is bifurcatio with 213. Ten wallets hold 76.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 7:04 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 114 points, 26 Jun 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Jun 2026 | 16.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 5.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| bifurcatio | No | 213.36 |
| BeQuiet94 | Yes | 100 |
| thecaricature | Yes | 90 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.072806° N, 36.523854° E in Havrylivka between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+1.png Intersection Location in Havrylivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+2.png Havrylivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/bpdGhKirAxb1ZT3k9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
| Oklmntrader |
| Yes |
| 86.47 |
| alexandrinocapuchino | No | 82.17 |
| alexandro09 | No | 65.22 |
| DImmanuel74635 | No | 62.82 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 59.94 |
| DumbOracle | No | 52 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-havrylivka-by-february-28
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