Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Nov 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 58.5% on 6 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 88 daily closes on record from 6 Aug 2025 to 1 Nov 2025, the highest close was 74.5% on 14 Aug 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 13 points up, to 66% on 10 Aug 2025. $75.12K traded over the market's life.
34 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 2, 8:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 88 points, 6 Aug 2025 – 1 Nov 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2025 | 58.5% |
| 1 Nov 2025 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 5.32K |
| Rost1239 | Yes | 346.67 |
| tsihkodiives | Yes | 166 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection Tsentralna volytsia x Peremohy volytsia in Dovha Balka, Donetsk Oblast province, by October 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka+intersection+zoom.png Intersection Location in Dovha Balka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka+intersection.png Dovha Balka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Sp1hCRWLBnNtSwTk8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-dovha-balka-by-october-31
| Yes |
| 156.99 |
| dnoracle | Yes | 142.62 |
| Noted-Pony | Yes | 66.7 |
| Composed-Rhythm | Yes | 62.37 |
| camadxu | Yes | 35.71 |
| slvptr | Yes | 31.15 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 30.52 |
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