
Yes is at 16.5%, down 45 points from 61.5% when the market opened on 29 Apr 2026.
Across the 179 daily closes on record from 29 Apr 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 61.5% on 29 Apr 2026 and the lowest 12.5% on 10 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 27%; a month before, 22.5%. Its largest one-day move was 28 points down, to 12.5% on 10 Sep 2026.
$68.31 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $72.53K since listing. The order book holds $1.23K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 497 trades, $8.9K bought Yes and $10.87K bought No; the largest was a $4.48K sell of No at 83.0¢.
The largest Yes position is br3ty with 954 shares; the largest No position is jasonisanidiot with 1.9K. Ten wallets hold 61.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:33 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 179 points, 29 Apr 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Apr 2026 | 61.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 16.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| jasonisanidiot | No | 1.88K |
| br3ty | Yes | 954 |
| sokil23 | Yes | 752.88 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, (50.284808° N, 36.938428° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Vovchansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within the municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Vovchansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vovchansk.png The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
| Stiff-Speedboat-Waiter |
| Yes |
| 528.64 |
| Antique-Mound | Yes | 515.52 |
| Wary-Porpoise | No | 514.19 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 429.66 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 354.94 |
| Tempting-Tell | No | 300 |
| CompulsiveGambler | No | 297.24 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-all-of-vovchansk-by
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