Analytics
Resolved No on 23 Nov 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.7%. Yes opened at 32.5% on 11 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 13 daily closes on record from 11 Nov 2025 to 23 Nov 2025, the highest close was 32.5% on 11 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.9% on 22 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 15 points down, to 18% on 12 Nov 2025. $166.95K traded over the market's life.
75 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 24, 2:24 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 13 points, 11 Nov 2025 – 23 Nov 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Nov 2025 | 32.5% |
| 23 Nov 2025 | 1.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Kaijipt | Yes | 1.31K |
| tsihkodiives | Yes | 719.12 |
| MoonOnly | Yes | 450.63 |
| Utopic | Yes | 400 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Pokrovsk by November 21, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Pokrovsk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 21, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Rih" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the Pokrovsk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Pokrovsk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Pokrovosk+Location.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ixAs4fF8n8ccVeL17 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
| Bland-Divalent | Yes | 381.25 |
| Plain-Aquarium | Yes | 376 |
| Cmdz | Yes | 255.56 |
| Alex1453 | Yes | 166.67 |
| ABCDE | Yes | 149.99 |
| jajjjpionnbbnbn | Yes | 142.86 |
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-all-of-pokrovsk-by-september-30
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