Analytics
Resolved Yes on 12 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 98.6%. Yes opened at 87% on 24 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 19 daily closes on record from 24 Apr 2026 to 12 May 2026, the highest close was 99% on 8 May 2026 and the lowest 87% on 24 Apr 2026. $8.67K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 13, 9:34 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 19 points, 24 Apr 2026 – 12 May 2026, chart shows 80%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Apr 2026 | 87.0% |
| 12 May 2026 | 98.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 934.52 |
| alee5 | No | 377.56 |
| hvfun | No | 346.66 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Wales following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Wales; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-first-minister-of-wales
| No |
| 122.98 |
| VPredicts | No | 100 |
| vikiclaw | No | 87.3 |
| Royal Harbor 217A | No | 87 |
| loisderau | Yes | 32.63 |
| PPMT | No | 31.92 |
| perepuk | No | 17.42 |
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