Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.4%. Yes opened at 66% on 5 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 120 daily closes on record from 5 Sep 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 66% on 5 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.7% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 40 points down, to 0.7% on 1 Jan 2026. $7.09K traded over the market's life.
32 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 120 points, 5 Sep 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Sep 2025 | 66.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| alilili1 | Yes | 1K |
| t3u | Yes | 400 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 300 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine has its Biologics License Application (BLA) approval or Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) revoked by the FDA or is voluntarily withdrawn for reasons related to health, safety, or efficacy by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Withdrawing approval solely due to seasonality, low demand, or an emergency ending will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. Similarly, a reduction in the scope of approved recipients, without fully eliminating the approval will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution." The resolution source will be official FDA announcements and guidance published on the FDA website (see: https://www.cdc.gov/acip-recs/hcp/vaccine-specific/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-rfk-end-any-vaccine-approvals-by-december-31
| Yes |
| 268 |
| alivip | Yes | 200 |
| maomiao | Yes | 130.83 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 121 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 117 |
| lineth | Yes | 116.84 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 102 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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