Analytics
Resolved No on 22 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 4% on 22 May 2024. Before it settled, across the 185 daily closes on record from 22 May 2024 to 22 Nov 2024, the highest close was 19.1% on 6 Nov 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 8 Nov 2024. Its largest one-day move was 15 points down, to 4.5% on 7 Nov 2024. $4.6M traded over the market's life.
45 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 23, 12:38 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 185 points, 22 May 2024 – 22 Nov 2024, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 May 2024 | 4.0% |
| 22 Nov 2024 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 369.91K |
| Eurog | Yes | 46K |
| bidentheiceceramdestroyer | Yes | 5K |
The 2024 United States Senate elections will be held on November 5, 2024, with 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested. This market will resolve to "Yes" if as a result of the 2024 U.S. Senate elections 55 voting Senate members are Republican. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2024 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/of-republican-senate-seats-after-election
| danzel | Yes | 3.12K |
| epic | Yes | 2.46K |
| egger | Yes | 2.4K |
| Fede99 | Yes | 2.38K |
| tessafields | Yes | 2.34K |
| desiree | Yes | 1.23K |
| natalili | Yes | 1K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
