Analytics
Resolved No on 8 Jul 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.5%. Yes opened at 47.5% on 11 Jun 2024. Before it settled, across the 28 daily closes on record from 11 Jun 2024 to 8 Jul 2024, the highest close was 47.5% on 11 Jun 2024 and the lowest 0.3% on 6 Jul 2024. Its largest one-day move was 28 points down, to 19% on 12 Jun 2024. $96.07K traded over the market's life.
18 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 9, 8:30 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 28 points, 11 Jun 2024 – 8 Jul 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Jun 2024 | 47.5% |
| 8 Jul 2024 | 2.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 45.2K |
| NotVichy | Yes | 13.83K |
| asc | Yes | 607.16 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
French legislative elections are are scheduled for June 30 and July 7, 2024. Elections for the National Assembly, which is the lower house of France's bicameral parliament, are conducted over 2 rounds of voting. A single representative is chosen for each of 577 constituencies, and the sum total of representatives makes up the National Assembly. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Renaissance wins the most seats in the National Assembly as a result of the next French legislative election. If voting in the next French legislative election does not occur by December 31, 2024, this market will resolve to "No". In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Renaissance, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French Government, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: This market refers to the Renaissance Party (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renaissance_(French_political_party), NOT the Renaissance group, 'Renaissance Deputies' (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renaissance_group).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-french-election
| Yes |
| 5.56 |
| Free-Paradise | Yes | 5.51 |
| Understated-Flute | Yes | 5.33 |
| 0xC0E1 | Yes | 5.32 |
| awDXAESDA | Yes | 5.22 |
| RDGTArFDzaDRS | Yes | 5.14 |
| Tame-Gran | Yes | 5.12 |
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