Will Rafał Trzaskowski win the most votes in the first round of the Polish Presidential election?

Resolved

Yes, settled May 19, 2025 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$767.4K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

May 19, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 19 May 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 97.1%. Yes opened at 94.7% on 6 May 2025. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 6 May 2025 to 19 May 2025, the highest close was 97.4% on 8 May 2025 and the lowest 85.5% on 16 May 2025. Its largest one-day move was 8.8 points down, to 85.5% on 16 May 2025. $767.35K traded over the market's life.

22 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of May 20, 4:20 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 6 May 2025 – 19 May 2025, chart shows 80%–100%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
6 May 2025	94.7%
19 May 2025	97.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	206.59K
BabyYoda12	No	9.79K
pdkXD	No	6.08K

10 of 22 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

Poland has a two-round system for presidential elections, where a runoff between the top two candidates is held if no candidate secures an absolute majority in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Polish presidential election are not known by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the official results of the election, as reported by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market resolves based on the election results from the Polish government, specifically the National Electoral Commission (Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza, PKW) (https://www.pkw.gov.pl/).