Analytics
Resolved No on 23 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 12% on 5 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 173 daily closes on record from 5 Sep 2025 to 23 Feb 2026, the highest close was 22% on 24 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 20 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 11 points up, to 13.2% on 10 Jan 2026. $6.09K traded over the market's life.
22 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 24, 4:26 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 173 points, 5 Sep 2025 – 23 Feb 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Sep 2025 | 12.0% |
| 23 Feb 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| MyLige | Yes | 171.19 |
| Joint-Screen | Yes | 104.73 |
| lissartter | Yes | 88.1 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party is a part of the first Dutch government formed after the 2025 general election scheduled to take place October 29. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it signs the coalition agreement and provides at least one cabinet minister to the ruling government. Parties that merely provide external support (“gedoogsteun”) without holding ministerial positions will not qualify. This market may resolve once the first government is officially announced and sworn in by the monarch, with ministers appointed under "non-caretaker circumstances.” If no government is formed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be the official announcements from the governing coalition; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-parties-will-be-part-of-next-government-of-the-netherlands
| Ksaich-Pack1 | Yes | 50 |
| Rlso | Yes | 47.81 |
| Kanp | Yes | 45.4 |
| Blaorra | Yes | 45.11 |
| Avvnnnn | Yes | 43 |
| Cronnozzz | Yes | 37.08 |
| Owwwnn | Yes | 33.7 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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