Analytics
Resolved No on 29 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 94.5%. Yes opened at 15% on 2 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 148 daily closes on record from 2 Nov 2025 to 29 Mar 2026, the highest close was 16% on 4 Nov 2025 and the lowest 1.7% on 17 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 6.5 points down, to 9.5% on 5 Nov 2025. $3.39M traded over the market's life.
373 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 30, 6:43 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 148 points, 2 Nov 2025 – 29 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Nov 2025 | 15.0% |
| 29 Mar 2026 | 5.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 653.8K |
| misterluna | Yes | 86.78K |
| Immense-Predecessor | Yes | 33K |
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. If it is impossible for a team to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No”. If for any reason no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/2026-ncaa-tournament-winner
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| Yes |
| 27.26K |
| Jade Beacon 69C0 | Yes | 25.15K |
| Ivory Ledger 752C | Yes | 18.02K |
| Golden Maven ECAD | Yes | 17.76K |
| 0xpercevil | Yes | 12.71K |
| zdggry | Yes | 10.21K |
| nakshi | Yes | 8.65K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
