Analytics
Yes is at 0.1%, down 17 points from 17% when the market opened on 3 Feb 2026.
Across the 248 daily closes on record from 3 Feb 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (23 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 29% on 7 Feb 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 27 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 0.3%; a month before, 3.6%. Its largest one-day move was 22 points up, to 22.9% on 22 Feb 2026.
Project Hail Mary ranks fourth of the 8 outcomes in “Which film will get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?”. The Odyssey leads at 84%; Dune: Messiah is at 13.3%.
$17.77K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $6.87K, with a 0.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 308 trades, $194.54 bought Yes and $8.46K bought No; the largest was a $1.86K buy of No at 95.1¢.
The largest Yes position is Beniboii with 2K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 12.7K. Ten wallets hold 81.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jul 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:47 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 248 points, 3 Feb 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Feb 2026 | 17.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 0.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 12.74K |
| Beniboii | Yes | 2.01K |
| MaxEnt | Yes | 2K |
The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. This market will resolve according to the film which is nominated for the greatest number of Oscars at the 99th Academy Awards, currently expected to take place in March of 2027. A film will be considered to be nominated for an award if it or members of its crew, cast, or production are nominated for an award for work related to that film. In the event of a tie for the greatest number of nominations, this market will resolve in favor of the film whose title comes first in alphabetical order. If for any reason no nominations are announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-film-will-get-the-most-oscar-nominations-at-the-99th-academy-awards
| LornaPredicts |
| Yes |
| 1.11K |
| tonycharles | Yes | 839 |
| Crimson Harbor C82D | Yes | 561.12 |
| planktonXD | Yes | 396.17 |
| Rjhats | Yes | 375 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 370.01 |
| qwen300.fund | Yes | 369.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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