Analytics
Yes is at 96.4%, up 70 points from 26% when the market opened on 10 Sep 2026.
Across the 46 daily closes on record from 10 Sep 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 98.5% on 10 Oct 2026 and the lowest 16% on 13 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 96.2%; a month before, 78.5%. Its largest one-day move was 35 points up, to 50.5% on 14 Sep 2026.
Portugal is the favourite of the 2 outcomes in “UEFA Nations League 2026-27: Group A4 Winner”, ahead of Denmark at 2.1%.
$40.39 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $8.92K since listing. The order book holds $1.04K, with a 0.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 150 trades, $3.5K bought Yes and $700.71 bought No; the largest was a $1K buy of Yes at 69.7¢.
The largest Yes position is Bulky-Helo-Athlete with 1.7K shares; the largest No position is SmartBoyBilly with 600. Ten wallets hold 72.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 2 Dec 2026, 35 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 2:22 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 46 points, 10 Sep 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Sep 2026 | 26.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 96.4% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bulky-Helo-Athlete | Yes | 1.71K |
| MaciBetting23 | Yes | 731.83 |
| SmartBoyBilly | No | 600 |
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group A4 at the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League. If the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League is cancelled, postponed after December 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/uefa-nations-league-2026-27-group-a4-winner
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 482.42 |
| TypeShi | No | 471.68 |
| ludvigttt | No | 455.13 |
| DiogoBNF566 | Yes | 310.15 |
| maraya | Yes | 298.96 |
| richyee | No | 236.38 |
| Hilarious-Paddle | No | 208.33 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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