- What is the “Will Pope Francis step down before July?” market asking?
- It asks whether the following will happen: Will Pope Francis step down before July? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
- What do the Yes and No prices mean?
- At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
- How did this market resolve?
- It resolved No on 21 Apr 2025. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.
- How does this market resolve?
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pope Francis announces he has resigned or will resign the papacy by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If it becomes impossible for Pope Francis to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Pope Francis announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution…
- What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?
- Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.
