Analytics
Resolved No on 21 Apr 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 95.5%. Yes opened at 12% on 19 Feb 2025. Before it settled, across the 62 daily closes on record from 19 Feb 2025 to 21 Apr 2025, the highest close was 23.5% on 28 Feb 2025 and the lowest 4.5% on 18 Apr 2025. Its largest one-day move was 7 points up, to 20.5% on 22 Feb 2025. $159.45K traded over the market's life.
30 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 22, 4:20 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 62 points, 19 Feb 2025 – 21 Apr 2025, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Feb 2025 | 12.0% |
| 21 Apr 2025 | 4.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| chirone | Yes | 7.48K |
| kuno | Yes | 946.27 |
| satoshiiiii | Yes | 906.3 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pope Francis announces he has resigned or will resign the papacy by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If it becomes impossible for Pope Francis to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Pope Francis announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Pope Francis, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-pope-francis-step-down-before-july
| Yes |
| 709.71 |
| Liveisbrutal | Yes | 525 |
| ThomasNg | Yes | 391.49 |
| Ok123 | Yes | 293.2 |
| Deafening-Quota | Yes | 142.86 |
| Hanakeda | Yes | 139.19 |
| ulriklykke | Yes | 111.11 |
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