Analytics
Resolved Yes on 10 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 93.2%. Yes opened at 31% on 31 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 42 daily closes on record from 31 Jul 2026 to 10 Sep 2026, the highest close was 93.2% on 10 Sep 2026 and the lowest 31% on 31 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 34 points up, to 82% on 19 Aug 2026. $575.66 traded over the market's life.
7 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 42 points, 31 Jul 2026 – 10 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2026 | 31.0% |
| 10 Sep 2026 | 93.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| a5533 | No | 35 |
| drinkerlabs | No | 20 |
| kingtyrone | No | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve "Yes" if an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for NWS forecast zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix) for a cumulative total of 10 or more calendar days during August 1–31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". A calendar day counts if an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for any portion of that day for the NWS forecast zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix). The total count of Extreme Heat Warning events for zone AZZ543 can be verified using Iowa Environmental Mesonet's NWS warning search tool at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/search.php, filtered to zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix) for the month of August. Multiple warnings on the same day count as one day. Heat Advisories do not count. In the event the NWS renders unavailable, resolution will be determined by observed daily high temperatures at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport (station KPHX) as reported by NOAA's Climate Data Online (ncdc.noaa.gov) and any calendar day with an observed high of 110°F or above will count as a warning day for resolution purposes.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-phoenix-be-under-an-extreme-heat-warning-for-10-days-in-august-2026-20260730191127649
| No |
| 11.08 |
| TENETENET | No | 10 |
| Wordy-Doctrine | No | 5 |
| triklozoid | No | 5 |
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