Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 6% on 15 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 48 daily closes on record from 15 Aug 2026 to 1 Oct 2026, the highest close was 6% on 15 Aug 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 18 Sep 2026. $382.14 traded over the market's life.
8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 4:01 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 48 points, 15 Aug 2026 – 1 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Aug 2026 | 6.0% |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Attached-Prairie | Yes | 137.71 |
| misterwilly | Yes | 55.91 |
| Mojito9 | Yes | 40 |
| jfkjdfj3 | Yes | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest occurs when Phoebe Gates is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true: (i) Phoebe Gates is criminally booked or processed; (ii) Phoebe Gates is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument; (iii) Phoebe Gates is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or (iv) Phoebe Gates is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center. The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Phoebe Gates being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds. Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-phoebe-gates-be-arrested-by-september-30-1786733412361
| TENETENET | Yes | 10 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 5 |
| 843Cc4C8e6dc29A4581126660814B0a6eF6A0734. | Yes | 3.99 |
| blessedshirt | Yes | 1.01 |
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