Analytics
Yes is at 4.5%, about where the market opened on 26 Aug 2026.
Across the 60 daily closes on record from 26 Aug 2026 to 25 Oct 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 8.7% on 2 Oct 2026 and the lowest 0.5% on 27 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 7.1%; a month before, 5.3%.
Brian Bengs (I) ranks second of the 3 outcomes in “South Dakota Senate Election Winner”. Mike Rounds (R) leads at 94.8%; Democrat is at 0.1%.
$15.81K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $45.79K, with a 1.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 170 trades, $479.08 bought Yes and $5.52K bought No; the largest was a $1.27K buy of No at 92.9¢.
The largest Yes position is fanmt with 3.9K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 5.7K. Ten wallets hold 85.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 10 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 25, 7:08 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 60 points, 26 Aug 2026 – 25 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Aug 2026 | 4.6% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 4.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 5.66K |
| fanmt | Yes | 3.94K |
| SitsToPee | Yes | 2.23K |
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Dakota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/south-dakota-senate-election-winner
| trampec |
| No |
| 2.2K |
| Prickly-Eyrie | No | 1.01K |
| Rayse | Yes | 610.98 |
| lihpare | No | 566 |
| Hyperlong | Yes | 545.16 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 454.99 |
| Thick-Ambulance | Yes | 431.37 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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