Analytics
“Will $PENGUIN reach $1B in Q1?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “What FDV will Penguin reach in Q1?”. The Yes price is the crowd's implied probability that the question resolves Yes; every trade on the public order book moves it.
The venue reports this market as closed. Its scheduled close is Apr 1, 2026. No resolved outcome is inferred from a closed or suspended state.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 57 hourly price points from Jan 27, 2026 to Mar 29, 2026 (Yes between 1.4% and 42.6%); 7 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 100.0% of the loaded shares; 27 recent public fills from 14 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This resolved market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any 1-minute candle for Penguin (PENGUIN/SOL) during Q1 2026 (from January 26 to March 31 11:59PM ET) has a final “High” price that implies a Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) equal to or greater than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.” The FDV will be calculated by multiplying the Penguin token price by the total token supply. The resolution source for this market is Dexscreener, specifically the PENGUIN/SOL price feed available at: https://dexscreener.com/solana/draf8qxqy86h7yehdo9gytxaf6gottt8ozjknwxv6dcs with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles). Only the Dexscreener PENGUIN/SOL price feed will be used. Prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or data sources will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-penguin-reach-1b-in-q1
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ means the crowd gives Yes about a 21.5% chance right now. It moves with every trade, so it is a live forecast, not a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Dollars resting in the order book, waiting to be traded against. Deep liquidity lets a large order fill near the quoted price; thin liquidity means the price jumps when someone trades size.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| cool.keith | Yes | 200.15 |
| yanshixian | Yes | 171.43 |
| tailhunter | Yes | 30.4 |
| Mojito9 | Yes | 10 |
| ffsFsfq | Yes | 10 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 5 |
| jjzzh | Yes | 5 |