Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 30.5% on 20 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 136 daily closes on record from 20 Aug 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 35.5% on 2 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 31 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 23 points up, to 35% on 28 Aug 2025. $63.09K traded over the market's life.
46 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 1, 9:04 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 136 points, 20 Aug 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Aug 2025 | 30.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| acal | Yes | 1.61K |
| VOLO | Yes | 1.2K |
| 8Eotx5qJmuUVd | Yes | 900 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pengu's Market Cap exceeds Shiba Inu’s at any point by December 31, 2025 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/pudgy-penguins/historical_data and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/shiba-inu/historical_data respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data. The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page for both Pengu and Shiba Inu. This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko data, not according to other sources or spot markets.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-pengu-flip-shiba-inu-by-december-31
| Yes |
| 499.99 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 443 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 238 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 231.98 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 189 |
| lissartter | Yes | 135.37 |
| Droopy-Chrysalis | Yes | 131.41 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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