Will Partido Popular win 40-43 seats in the 2026 Castilla y León regional election?

Resolved

No, settled Mar 16, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Resolved

Settled

Mar 16, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 16 Mar 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 12.5% on 24 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 50 daily closes on record from 24 Jan 2026 to 16 Mar 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 12.5% on 24 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 11 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 10 points up, to 12.5% on 27 Feb 2026.

19 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Mar 17, 5:02 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 50 points, 24 Jan 2026 – 16 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–15%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
24 Jan 2026	12.5%
16 Mar 2026	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	1.87K
WwW5555555555555	Yes	1.32K
TENETENET	Yes	100

10 of 19 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

Elections for the autonomous community of Castilla y Leon’s unicameral legislature (Cortes) are scheduled for March 15, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by Partido Popular (PP) in the Cortes of Castilla y Leon as a result of this election. Any regional branch of Partido Popular will be considered to be the same as Partido Popular. If the results of this election are not definitively known by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular in this election. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).