Will Palisades wildfire spread to Santa Monica by Sunday?

Resolved

No, settled Jan 13, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$159.1K

Resolved

Settled

Jan 13, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 13 Jan 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 60% on 9 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 9 Jan 2025 to 13 Jan 2025, the highest close was 60% on 9 Jan 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 13 Jan 2025. Its largest one-day move was 47 points down, to 13% on 10 Jan 2025. $159.07K traded over the market's life.

17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 14, 10:05 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 9 Jan 2025 – 13 Jan 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
9 Jan 2025	60.0%
13 Jan 2025	0.3%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Imperturbable-Sustainment	Yes	206.17
Grubby-Stepdaughter	Yes	134.09
Yooooooo	Yes	79.37
isildursheir	Yes	73.5

10 of 17 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Palisades fire in California spreads to Santa Monica by January 12, 2025, 11:59 PM PT (Pacific Time). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The fire will be considered to have spread to Santa Monica if it spreads across Santa Monica's official boundary (see: https://maps.app.goo.gl/1d5Hp6eHzSs2Ggga7) The Primary resolution source is official updates from the fire map at https://www.fire.ca.gov/. However, a consensus of credible reporting or video/photo evidence released before the resolution date confirming the fire has spread to Santa Monica may also be used.