Analytics
Resolved No on 17 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 20% on 30 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 80 daily closes on record from 30 Sep 2025 to 17 Dec 2025, the highest close was 62% on 10 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 17 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 40 points down, to 0.4% on 17 Dec 2025. $37.52K traded over the market's life.
15 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 19, 3:28 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 80 points, 30 Sep 2025 – 17 Dec 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Sep 2025 | 20.0% |
| 17 Dec 2025 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 840 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 260 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 208 |
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed movie is nominated for the 98th Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-documentary-feature-film-nominations
| Yes |
| 201 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 164 |
| singularityman | Yes | 155.09 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 143 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 91.39 |
| Liamyxy | Yes | 20 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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