Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 10% on 14 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 19 daily closes on record from 14 Dec 2024 to 1 Jan 2025, the highest close was 10% on 14 Dec 2024 and the lowest 0.2% on 30 Dec 2024. Its largest one-day move was 6 points down, to 4% on 15 Dec 2024. $34.4K traded over the market's life.
23 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 5:49 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 19 points, 14 Dec 2024 – 1 Jan 2025, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Dec 2024 | 10.0% |
| 1 Jan 2025 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| St-Qc | Yes | 144 |
| Swift Vector 4F31 | Yes | 69.67 |
| Jade Lynx DE68 | Yes | 65.67 |
| Bright Scout 3068 | Yes | 62.33 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Sam Altman initiate a lawsuit against Elon Musk by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be statements from Sam Altman, OpenAI, and Elon Musk and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-openai-sue-elon-musk-before-2025
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| Crimson Summit C81A | Yes | 23.33 |
| Emerald Falcon 810C | Yes | 9.74 |
| lyliy | Yes | 6.5 |
| 11-name | No | 5.01 |
| t76yeee | Yes | 5 |
| Web3Marcus | Yes | 1.21 |
