What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on 11 Dec 2025. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve according to the date (ET) that OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public. For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation,…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who still holds shares in this market?

20 public wallets still held shares when Vultax last looked. Winners usually redeem their shares after settlement, so the remaining holders are mostly on the losing side.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Dec 13, 12:31 AM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/what-day-will-openai-release-a-new-frontier-model) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Resolved No: Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 20?

Market referencewill-openai-release-a-new-frontier-model-on-december-20Updated Dec 13, 2025 UTC

Resolved

No · settled Dec 11, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$18.9K

Resolved

Settled

Dec 11, 2025 UTC

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

Dec 17, 2025 UTC

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

Dec 13, 2025 UTC

This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Resolved

Order book

Captured book available

Final outcome

The resolved venue state is treated as proof of resolution; holder and trade rows are settlement context.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

Wallets

Top 10 share

99%

Yes / No shares

16.46K / 118.43K

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

294

Wallets

Loaded notional

$10.61K

Yes sell at 0.1%

History rangePolymarket CLOB price history · daily closes · latest observation Dec 11, 12:00 AM UTC

Points

Move

-47 pts

Range

0.8% - 47.5%

Dec 9, 12:00 AM UTC to Dec 11, 12:00 AM UTC

Remaining positions after settlementWinners redeemed their shares, so these rows lean to the losing side. Not live orderbook depth or current OI.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
Indigo Signal 2966	No	118.43K	0.0%	$0
GenesisCupChampion	Yes	8.09K	0.0%

What day will OpenAI next release a new frontier model?

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 20?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 20? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “What day will OpenAI next release a new frontier model?”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
How did this market resolve?: It resolved No on 11 Dec 2025. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve according to the date (ET) that OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public. For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation,…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Analytics

Trader

Outcome

Avg entry

Cost basis

Last trade

Indigo Signal 2966

118.43K

0.0%

GenesisCupChampion

Yes

8.09K

0.0%

Trader	Current holding value
Indigo Signal 2966	$118.43K
GenesisCupChampion	$0
wokerjoesleeper	$0
Piercing-Backyard	$0
Heavy-Savage	$0
Bright Horizon 81D6	$0
flow-trader-at-optiver	$0
PredictiveMarkets	$0
Xedr	$0
itsjustcheddar	$0
Bold Scout BD7E	$0
EdwardLewis	$0