Analytics
Resolved No on 10 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 68.5% on 6 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 6 Dec 2025 to 10 Dec 2025, the highest close was 88.5% on 7 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.5% on 10 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 84 points down, to 3.3% on 9 Dec 2025. $661.97K traded over the market's life.
156 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 11, 8:28 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 6 Dec 2025 – 10 Dec 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Dec 2025 | 68.5% |
| 10 Dec 2025 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| anopolimark | Yes | 23.66K |
| Brokie | Yes | 5.6K |
| NoN | Yes | 3.87K |
| JHJHLKJM | Yes | 3.33K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by December 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models. Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count. Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-openai-release-a-new-frontier-model-by-december-13
| godnock | Yes | 3.22K |
| wojack. | Yes | 2.1K |
| huangyang | Yes | 2K |
| Unusual-Query | Yes | 1.59K |
| booyahh | Yes | 1.58K |
| Glum-Crepe | Yes | 1.27K |
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