Will OpenAI have the top AI model on October 31?

Resolved

No, settled Oct 31, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$49.7K

Resolved

Settled

Oct 31, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 31 Oct 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 9.5% on 12 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 50 daily closes on record from 12 Sep 2025 to 31 Oct 2025, the highest close was 13.5% on 16 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 30 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 6 points down, to 5% on 30 Sep 2025. $49.71K traded over the market's life.

54 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Nov 2, 12:28 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 50 points, 12 Sep 2025 – 31 Oct 2025, chart shows 0%–20%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
12 Sep 2025	9.5%
31 Oct 2025	0.3%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	32.05K
Bright Horizon 81D6	Yes	4.3K
Ziigmund	Yes	3.19K

10 of 54 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.