Analytics
Resolved No on 5 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 62.3%. Yes opened at 18% on 3 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 215 daily closes on record from 3 Dec 2024 to 5 Jul 2025, the highest close was 37.8% on 5 Jul 2025 and the lowest 0.6% on 4 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 37 points up, to 37.8% on 5 Jul 2025. $22.4K traded over the market's life.
21 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 6, 4:25 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 215 points, 3 Dec 2024 – 5 Jul 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Dec 2024 | 18.0% |
| 5 Jul 2025 | 37.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 488 |
| Schmidi8 | Yes | 353 |
| Somebodytolose | Yes | 221 |
Oasis is scheduled to begin their concert tour "Oasis Live '25 Tour" on July 4, 2025. This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Noel Gallagher or Liam Gallagher announce that they are leaving the band Oasis by July 3, 11:59 PM GMT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that either Noel or Liam has left the band will also suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-oasis-break-up-before-their-tour
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| Incarnadineskies | Yes | 200 |
| Rothschild | Yes | 99.98 |
| mspro | Yes | 90.91 |
| RCarvalho | Yes | 25 |
| Davi2992 | Yes | 24.31 |
| Jimmyneutron | Yes | 20 |
| RandomTurtle | Yes | 11.11 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
