Analytics
Yes is at 3.5%, down 23 points from 26% when the market opened on 3 Oct 2026.
Across the 24 daily closes on record from 3 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 33% on 14 Oct 2026 and the lowest 4% on 30 Oct 2026. The current quote, 3.5%, is below every close in that window; the latest close was 4% on 30 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 9%. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 22.5% on 15 Oct 2026.
November ranks second of the 4 outcomes in “Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?”. October leads at 93.7%; December is at 2.9%.
$99.99 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $21.03K since listing. The order book holds $3.01K, with a 5.7% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 346 trades, $1.29K bought Yes and $3.75K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Corny-Hyphenation with 1.3K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 2.3K. Ten wallets hold 94.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 9 Jan 2027, 71 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 24 points, 3 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Oct 2026 | 26.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 4.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 2.29K |
| Corny-Hyphenation | Yes | 1.27K |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 376.89 |
This market will resolve according to the calendar month of 2026 with the highest total rainfall at Melbourne (Olympic Park), Bureau of Meteorology station number 086338. Monthly rainfall is the total of all daily rainfall observations for that month, each nominally recorded at 9 am local time for the preceding 24 hours, as published in the Bureau of Meteorology's Monthly rainfall table for station 086338. Rainfall is reported in millimetres to 1 decimal place, and that is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Each month will be resolved on the figure as first published. Revisions issued after first publication will not be considered. The totals already published for January through September 2026 are final for the purposes of this market, and August, at 66.0 mm, is the highest of them, so only the four listed months can finish as the wettest month of 2026. If two or more months tie for the highest total, this market will resolve to the earliest of the tied months. The resolution source for this market is the Bureau of Meteorology Monthly rainfall table for Melbourne (Olympic Park), available here: http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=139&p_display_type=dataFile&p_stn_num=086338. If the figure for December 2026 is not available by January 8, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open for a period of up to three (3) calendar days (ET) to allow the figure to be published. If no figure is published within that period, the December market will resolve to "No", and this market will resolve according to the month with the highest published total among August, October and November.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/melbournes-wettest-month-of-2026
| Haradwaith | Yes | 256.31 |
| tradetosurvive1 | No | 167.65 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 159.77 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 103.64 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 99.63 |
| cigarettes | No | 83.25 |
| haouibao | Yes | 65 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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