Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.3%. Yes opened at 10% on 27 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 96 daily closes on record from 27 Jun 2026 to 1 Oct 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 40.5% on 1 Jul 2026 and the lowest 0.8% on 30 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 31 points up, to 40.5% on 1 Jul 2026. $2.94K traded over the market's life.
11 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:04 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 96 points, 27 Jun 2026 – 1 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Jun 2026 | 10.0% |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 0.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 263.97 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 95.38 |
| Oklmntrader | Yes | 70.34 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nous Research officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only an official token launched by Nous Research will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Nous Research (https://x.com/NousResearch), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-nous-research-launch-a-token-by
| the-260-Challenge | Yes | 42.58 |
| Pol7StrategyBuilder | Yes | 30 |
| PPMT | Yes | 30 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 25.78 |
| jfkjdfj3 | Yes | 20 |
| Mojito9 | Yes | 20 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 15 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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