Analytics
Resolved No on 11 Feb 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 45.5% on 31 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 12 daily closes on record from 31 Jan 2025 to 11 Feb 2025, the highest close was 63.5% on 10 Feb 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 11 Feb 2025. Its largest one-day move was 63 points down, to 0.3% on 11 Feb 2025. $14.06K traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 12, 3:41 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 12 points, 31 Jan 2025 – 11 Feb 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2025 | 45.5% |
| 11 Feb 2025 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| kevinflynn | Yes | 399.64 |
| ma762nazemle | Yes | 155.38 |
| iamhungry | No | 0.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Ecuador on February 9, 2025. If necessary, a second round will be held on April 13, 2025. To win in the first round outright, one presidential candidate must secure over 50% of the vote, or over 40% of the vote and be 10 points ahead of their nearest rival. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Daniel Noboa wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Ecuadorian Government, specifically the National Electoral Council (https://www.cne.gob.ec/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-noboa-win-in-the-first-round-of-the-ecuadorian-presidential-election
| No |
| 0 |
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