Analytics
“Will no listed leader be out before 2027?” is a politics prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
This market resolved No on 20 Jul 2026. $9.23M traded over its life. The price history, the holders still on the books and the trade tape below are kept as the record of how the crowd priced the question while it was open.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 84 daily price points from Apr 28, 2026 UTC to Jul 20, 2026 UTC (Yes between 0.1% and 26.0%); 74 wallets still holding shares after settlement, the largest ten holding 90.4% of the loaded shares; 500 recent public fills from 63 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 84 points · 28 Apr 2026 – 20 Jul 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Apr 2026 | 26.0% |
| 20 Jul 2026 | 0.1% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 207.21K |
| illumination | Yes | 10K |
| Shimi318 | Yes |
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-orban
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 6.67K |
| Solar Vector C4FE | Yes | 6.14K |
| matrixd | Yes | 6K |
| Kent777 | Yes | 5K |
| Unfinished-Witch | Yes | 3.82K |
| balthazar | Yes | 3.79K |
| Cobalt Voyager 1733 | Yes | 3.33K |
| Cheap-Operation | Yes | 3.06K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard